The Kremlin's Missing Man: Unraveling the Mystery of Lavrov's Absence
In the world of Kremlin-watching, an unexplained absence of a key official often sparks intrigue and speculation. And so it was when Sergei Lavrov, Russia's veteran foreign minister, failed to show up at a crucial Kremlin meeting last week. This no-show has set tongues wagging and raised questions about the dynamics behind the scenes.
Lavrov, a permanent member of the security council, was the only one missing from the Tuesday session where Vladimir Putin instructed officials to consider resuming nuclear weapons testing. Adding fuel to the fire, Lavrov, 75, was also left off Russia's delegation to the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa. These unusual decisions have prompted Moscow to deny any issues, with the Kremlin dismissing rumors of a falling out between Lavrov and Putin as "absolutely untrue."
But here's where it gets controversial... Rumors of Putin's displeasure with Lavrov first surfaced after Donald Trump canceled his planned summit with Putin in Budapest. Media reports suggest the meeting was called off after a tense call between Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where Lavrov's demands and rigid stance on Ukraine peace talks left US officials convinced a summit would be futile.
A former high-ranking Kremlin official told The Guardian that Lavrov's absence from two public events doesn't necessarily indicate he's been "banished." Putin, the official said, is unlikely to discard a loyal diplomat who has served him for decades. However, the source claimed Lavrov "mishandled" his conversation with Rubio, creating a diplomatic mess.
Lavrov, a career diplomat since 1972, has been Russia's foreign minister since 2004, making him one of the world's longest-serving top diplomats. Known for his gravelly voice and combative press conferences, he has defended Moscow's foreign policy on various fronts, from the Iraq war to Syria and the annexation of Crimea.
Once regarded as a pragmatic and capable diplomat in western capitals, Lavrov has hardened alongside Putin's system, adopting increasingly belligerent rhetoric. The former official said Putin wanted the Budapest meeting, and it wasn't Lavrov's place to interfere. A summit with Trump would have given Putin another chance to press his case and potentially influence the US president's stance on Ukraine. Holding the meeting in Budapest would also have been a symbolic win for Putin, showcasing his ability to move freely in Europe despite EU isolation efforts.
After the cancellation, Trump's tone towards Moscow hardened, and he introduced sanctions against two major Russian oil producers. The key question remains: Was it a diplomatic blunder by Lavrov, or was Washington always unlikely to agree to a new summit as long as Putin showed no willingness to compromise?
Boris Bondarev, a former senior diplomat who resigned after Russia's full-scale invasion, said it would be highly unusual for Lavrov to step outside his role as Putin's mouthpiece. "Putin has worked comfortably with Lavrov for years because he's a seasoned bureaucrat who knows never to say anything that doesn't align 100% with the president's position," Bondarev explained.
Bondarev added that Lavrov would never express any unwillingness to negotiate, as that would be improbable and go against Putin's line. However, Bondarev noted that Putin might now be trying to pin the cancellation on Lavrov, as in Russia's system, the boss can never be at fault.
Lavrov's actual influence over foreign policy has reportedly dwindled in recent years. He was not part of the inner circle that planned the Ukraine invasion, and the decision took him by surprise. His position was further challenged after Trump's re-election, when Kirill Dmitriev, a close friend of Putin's daughter, began holding direct talks with Trump's inner circle, encroaching on Lavrov's domain.
The souring relationship between Lavrov and Dmitriev is an open secret in Moscow, and it has occasionally spilled into the open. Last February, during peace talks in Riyadh with the US, Lavrov tried to exclude Dmitriev by removing his chair, but Dmitriev joined the meeting after Putin's intervention.
So, what do you think? Was Lavrov's absence a sign of a power struggle within the Kremlin, or just a case of miscommunication? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
