THE FED GIRDS FOR BATTLE - The Peter Schiff Show (2023)

It’s the Fed’s “hold my beer” moment. After more than a year in which Federal Reserve leadership appeared clueless, pollyannish, and indecisive, the Fed is conducting a full-throated messaging campaign to show that it is as serious as cancer about the inflation surge that is scaring the bejesus out of consumers, investors, and economists.

Their public pronouncements in recent weeks go something like this: “Out of a good faith misreading of post-pandemic data we had concluded, mistakenly as it happens, that the inflation wave, which began in 2021, was transitory. But now that we know it is not, we are moving with great speed and resolve to bring the problem to heel. Given the power of our tools, the underlying strength of our economy, and our hard-earned credibility, we are confident we can get the job done quickly, and without inflicting undue harm on the economy. We will continue until inflation gets closer to our 2% target. And so, if you don’t mind, kind sir, please step aside and let us do the job we were created to do. We got this!”

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This newly found resolve may assure many that at least the Fed is no longer in denial and has a plan to get us out of this mess. In reality, these open mouth operations are simply a desperate Hail Mary designed to convince us that the Fed can do what it clearly has no stomach or power to do. I would suggest that Fed officials hold onto their beers and drink. They are going to need it.

While most observers have focused on Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference last week as the clearest insight into the Fed’s thinking, I think more can be gleaned from the extensive conversation two days later in Minneapolis between Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (a current voting member of the FOMC) and Neel Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (and an FOMC alternative member). In particular, Waller offered a very clear assessment of the Fed’s battle plan.

Right off the bat, he confronted mounting criticism that the Fed failed to read the economy accurately over the past 18 months, thereby grossly miscalculating policy, which let the inflation genie out of the bottle. His defense, which essentially boils down to “don’t blame us, no one with mainstream credentials in government, economics, or finance saw this coming,” is both bizarre and inadvertently illuminative. Not only does this ignore the 2021 predictions of former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who used to have at least some mainstream credibility, but it completely ignores all those like me who had been shouting from the rooftops that this danger was lurking. Waller’s admission, which shows how deeply embedded Fed leaders are in their own echo chamber, is more of an indictment of the entire economic elite rather than an excuse for their errors.

Waller then admitted that inflation data that was released way back in September 2021 revealed to them that the “transitory story’ that they had been spinning since the beginning of 2021, would no longer hold water. He explained that members of the FOMC were so alarmed that they immediately responded with plans to roll out new messaging that hinted strongly at tighter policy. Say what?

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They determined nine months ago that very high inflation had been running rampant for the better part of a year, that it showed no signs of slowing, that the Fed Funds rate (which was then at 0%, and likely 800 basis points below the rate of inflation) was adding fuel to the fire, and the only thing they were prepared to do was to start talking tougher?

The Fed did not implement its first rate hike (25 basis points) until March of this year, fully seven months later! And during that entire time, it continued to expand its balance sheet by hundreds of billions of dollars through quantitative easing rather than immediately stopping the program or, better yet, reversing it. That’s insane. Captain, there is a huge gash in the hull of the ship but rather than try to repair the damage now, let’s think about how we are going to word our next few press releases!

Instead of taking bold steps back in the fourth quarter of last year to get ahead of the curve, or to at least not fall far further behind, the Fed irresponsibly took a slow and muted path. Given its admitted understanding of the conditions nine months ago, its actions seem hard to justify.

Despite these past missteps, Waller claims that the Fed is well-suited to make up for lost time. Emboldened by what he sees as an “historically” strong labor market, Waller believes the current economy can absorb the negative effects of higher interest rates without succumbing to recession. As a result, he predicts the Fed will not be deterred by weaker jobs or economic reports that may emerge in the coming months. In fact, he claims such data would be welcome developments. In his view, the economy needs to lose jobs to be put back into balance. Reduced hiring, he argues, will diminish upward wage pressure, which he sees as the root cause of inflation.

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To justify his confidence that higher rates will kill inflation but not the broad economy, Waller took pains to draw a sharp contrast with today’s conditions and those that predominated in the late 1970s/early 1980s, which was the last time the Fed confronted nearly double-digit inflation with bold monetary tightening. Back then, the sharp rise in interest rates brought down inflation AND plunged the country into a recession. But as he views the current economy as benefiting from an “historically strong” labor market, he believes that fate will be avoided.

But Waller is looking at the rear-view mirror. He assumes that the economy that arose during the last decade of almost zero percent interest rates and historically stimulative fiscal policy will persist after those props are removed. But now, as rates increase and stimulus is removed, the economy must contract and change. We are already seeing such a change in the more speculative end of the economy. That’s where the problems are usually first manifest.

In case you hadn’t noticed, the wheels are coming off the technology and the cryptocurrency sectors. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index is down more than 25% thus far this year. The ARK Innovation ETF, which tracks the highest-flying growth-oriented technology, and “new economy” stocks is down 56%. E-commerce bellwethers such as Netflix and Shopify are down even more. The carnage in the crypto space is also spectacular. Although bitcoin is down about 60% from its high, that’s the good news. Lesser known cryptos are down 70% or 80%. Some have been nearly wiped out completely, even those “stable” coins that were supposed to be pegged to the dollar. The pain extends to the businesses that worked in the crypto space. Financial firm Microstrategies, which borrowed to invest in bitcoin, is down 60% year to date while Coinbase, the crypto trading platform, is down 72%. (Bear in mind that all the losses listed above are just this calendar year. If you started measuring from the November 2021 highs, the losses are significantly greater.)

Recall that the Recession of 2001 and 2002 largely resulted from the implosion of the dotcom bubble when the pain in Silicon Valley rippled through the broader economy. But this time the outsized gains were even bigger and less tethered to reality. Many tech firms have already announced large scale layoffs. Hundreds of thousands of highly paid workers may suddenly find themselves looking for jobs. Falling stock prices may also encourage recent retirees, who may have been coaxed out of the labor force by oversized stock market gains, or millennials who’ve been trading meme stocks and crypto currencies on Robinhood for a living, to join former Netflix, Twitter and Peloton employees in looking for work. Boom will go bust, and the unemployment rate may rise much quicker than Fed models suggest.

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Waller also, somewhat bizarrely, believes that the Fed’s job will now be made easier by higher credibility than it had in the late 1970s when Paul Volcker went to war against high inflation. His theory holds that the Fed’s routine failures to confront inflation for much of the 1970s had diminished its credibility, making Volcker’s task that much harder. But by raising rates to nearly 20% in 1980, Volcker restored the credibility, which, in Waller’s view, the Fed holds to this day. He argues that since the Fed has already demonstrated it can do the job, the people are assured it can do it again. This is laughable.

Firstly, the Fed has largely “won” the battle against inflation in recent years by lying about it. The CPI has been changed and weakened so many times since 1980 that the index barely resembles the one used by Volcker. Secondly, the Fed has been routinely backing off from tough choices since the Great Recession of 2008. The taper tantrum of 2013, its painfully slow decisions to lift rates from zero in 2015, the rapid pivot away from tightening to easing in December of 2018, all speak to its jitters in the face of turmoil. Thirdly, the Fed’s repeated failures to recognize dangerous bubbles in the stock and real estate markets and its pathetic predictions about the mortgage problems in 2007 being “contained” to subprime, or inflation in 2021 being “transitory,” all add to the vaudevillian nature of its economic insight.

If Powell and Waller believe, despite all its recent failures, that the Fed can draw on a 40-year-old mystique generated by a man who passed away more than two years ago, they are in for a very rude awakening.

Left out of the discussion between Kashkari and Waller about the differences between the 1970s and today is how much more leverage we must contend with today and how much higher stock, bond and real estate prices are in relation to the overall economy. Back in 1980 those asset prices had been falling or stagnant for the better part of a decade. Consequently, there weren’t that many gains left to lose. Now stocks, bonds, and real estate are still not far off from record highs. The bursting of those bubbles, which could result from higher interest rates, will be much more recessionary than what happened in 1980.

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So, interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 may be high enough to burst the debt bubble and plunge the economy into another financial crisis, but they will not be nearly high enough to kill inflation. If the Fed has to reverse course to stimulate an economy in recession, while inflation remains well above its 2% target, the dollar will likely collapse, sending commodity prices and the costs of imported goods upward.

As Fed officials tell us how they are ready for battle and that they have the enemy in their sights, I can’t help thinking about “Baghdad Bob,” the hapless spokesman for Saddam Hussein who boldly pronounced in live interviews how the U.S. invasion was failing even as American tanks lumbered into the scene behind him. We can laugh at their predicament. But we won’t laugh long.

FAQs

Which statement best describes how the Fed responds to recessions? ›

Answer and Explanation: The correct answer is C (increasing money supply). When a recession occurs, the fed may play a vital role in tackling the recession, including the increase of money supply.

Which statements describe how the Fed responds to high inflation? ›

The action taken by the Fed in order to fight inflation is the contractionary monetary policy. It includes reducing the money supply in the country thus slowing the economy down and diminishing inflation. One of the tools used to achieve this goal is the increase in interest rates.

What is the Fed doing about inflation? ›

The Fed's top tool for controlling inflation is its power to affect interest rates. The Fed can raise or lower its benchmark rate — known as the federal funds rate — based on what it is seeing in the economy.

How does the Fed shrink its balance sheet? ›

As the Fed allows maturing securities to fall off the asset side of its balance sheet, it shrinks reserves on the liability side by an equivalent amount. At the same time, because the Fed is no longer purchasing Treasuries and agency MBS, private markets need to absorb more of those assets.

Why does the Fed lower interest rates in a recession? ›

This helps keep employees in their current jobs and suppress the rise in unemployment when a recession hits. Lower interest rates also enable consumers to make more purchases on credit, keeping consumer prices high and likewise extend themselves further into debt rather than live within their means.

What is the current Fed funds rate? ›

The federal funds rate is currently 3% to 3.25%.

Does raising interest rates cause recession? ›

Economists warn the combination of higher borrowing costs, high inflation, and slower growth could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

What is causing inflation 2022? ›

In early 2021, a worldwide increase in inflation began to occur. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related fiscal and monetary stimulus, supply shortages (including chip shortages and energy shortages), price gouging and as of 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Why raise interest rates when inflation is high? ›

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates as it races to tamp down rapid inflation. These moves have a lot of people wondering why rate increases — which raise the cost of borrowing money — are America's main tool for cooling down prices. Inflation right now is being driven by an economic mismatch.

Will there be a 2022 recession? ›

The U.S. has already experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2022, which some people consider to be a recession. But others are waiting for the National Bureau of Economic Research to make the final call—and it has yet to do so.

Will the Fed raise interest rates in 2022? ›

In September, with inflation still running stubbornly hot, the Federal Reserve increased the target for the federal funds rate still another 0.75% to a range of 3% – 3.25%. The Federal Reserve also released median projections showing that they anticipate the target rate to be 4.4% by the end of 2022.

Will interest rates go down in 2023? ›

When Will Interest Rates Go Down? We expect the Fed will pivot to easing monetary policy in mid-2023 as inflation falls back to its 2% target and the need to shore up economic growth becomes a top concern. The full analysis is detailed in our 2022 U.S. Interest Rate & Inflation Forecast.

How long will quantitative tightening last? ›

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that QT would go on for two to 2½ years, implying that the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet would shrink by roughly $2.5 trillion. That sounds easy enough. But there is a two-part problem around investors' perception of QT.

What assets does the Fed buy? ›

Key Takeaways. The Fed's assets include Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities purchased under large scale asset purchase programs (LSAPs). Fed liabilities include U.S. currency in circulation and the reserves deposited by commercial banks.

What dates does the Fed meet in 2022? ›

September 20-21, 2022 FOMC Meeting.

What happens to your mortgage if the economy collapses? ›

When a nation enters a recession, that means there's been a serious drop in economic activity. That typically translates into economic struggles for many, including job losses or reduced income. But bills—including your mortgage payment—will continue to come due, and you'll still be responsible for paying them.

What will cause the next recession? ›

High inflation, rising interest rates, shaky economic activity and volatile markets have raised the probability that the U.S. economy will slip into a recession, according to economists.

Is it good to buy a house during a recession? ›

Is Buying A Home During A Recession Worth It? In general, buying a home during a recession will get you a better deal. The number of foreclosures or owners who have to sell to stay afloat increases, typically leading to more homes available on the market and lower home prices.

What is the current federal interest rate 2022? ›

In updated projections, the Fed signaled plans to lift rates by another 1.25 percentage points before the year is over, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5 percent before 2022 comes to a close.

What is the prime rate today 2022? ›

The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 6.25% (rate effective as of September 22, 2022).

What happens when interest rates rise? ›

When interest rates are rising, both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending. This will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop. On the other hand, when interest rates have fallen significantly, consumers and businesses will increase spending, causing stock prices to rise.

What gets cheaper during a recession? ›

Because a decline in disposable income affects prices, the prices of essentials, such as food and utilities, often stay the same. In contrast, things considered to be wants instead of needs, such as travel and entertainment, may be more likely to get cheaper.

What happens to your money in the bank during a depression? ›

Deposits Are Protected by the FDIC. This is overwhelmingly the main form of protection that consumers have in case their banks fail due to an economic downturn or other issue. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is a semi-private organization that was created in the wake of the Great Depression.

How do you make money when interest rates rise? ›

Invest with Bonds

Increasing interest rates have big impacts on markets, including the stock market. But even more sensitive to rate hikes is the bond market. Investing in bonds could be a way to add more diversification to your portfolio and help your money make better returns when interest rates rise.

Who benefits from inflation? ›

Inflation Can Also Help Lenders

On top of this, the higher prices of those items earn the lender more interest. For example, if the price of a television increases from $1,500 to $1,600 due to inflation, the lender makes more money because 10% interest on $1,600 is more than 10% interest on $1,500.

Will food prices go down in 2023? ›

US – USDA released its latest report and predicts that in 2023 we will pay even more for our food. The Consumer price index reported that from June 2022 to July 2022 food prices increased 10.9 % higher than in July 2021.

How long will high inflation last? ›

Economists and financial experts do agree on one thing: Higher prices will likely last well into next year, if not longer. And that means Americans will continue to feel the pain of higher prices for the foreseeable future.

Can the Fed stop inflation? ›

The Fed, then, can bring down inflation “only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans,” they added. The paper suggests that without constraints in fiscal spending, rate hikes will make the cost of debt more expensive and drive inflation expectations higher.

What assets do well with rising interest rates? ›

The types of investments that tend to do well as rates rise include:
  • Banks and other financial institutions. As rates rise, banks can charge higher rates for their mortgages, while moving up the price they pay for deposits much less. ...
  • Value stocks. ...
  • Dividend stocks. ...
  • The S&P 500 index. ...
  • Short-term government bonds.
2 Aug 2022

What is causing inflation? ›

Economists have identified several possible causes for inflation from rising wages to increased aggregate demand to an increase in the supply of money. In 2022, inflation rates in the U.S. and around the world rose to their highest levels since the early 1980s.

Do house prices drop in a recession? ›

Recessions often bring about a fall in property prices.

Is america headed for a recession? ›

So is America in recession? US GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters - 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, and 0.6% the next. In most countries, that's a recession. Just not in the US.

What should we do in recession 2022? ›

What happens in a recession?
  • Take stock of your financial priorities. ...
  • Focus on debt repayment if you're able. ...
  • Consider your career opportunities, both now and in the future. ...
  • Try to bolster your emergency fund ahead of time. ...
  • Make an effort to stay on top of your financial situation.

What will interest rates do in 2023? ›

Economists' estimates are in line with what Fed officials themselves are expecting. Interest rates are expected to peak at 4.5-4.75 percent in 2023, according to the U.S. central bank's median projection in September.

How high will US interest rates go? ›

Currently the median projection of the federal funds rate is 4.4% at the end 2022 and 4.6% by the end of 2023. The median projections decline to 3.9% in 2024, 2.9% in 2025 and 2.5% in the long run.

How high are interest rates right now? ›

On Friday, October 21, 2022, the current average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.32%, up 15 basis points over the last week. If you're looking to refinance your current mortgage, today's national average rate for a 30-year fixed refinance is 7.30%, rising 15 basis points from a week ago.

Will 2023 be a good year to buy a house? ›

All survey respondents said to expect home-price deceleration in 2023. The U.S. housing market will shift in favor of home buyers by the end of 2023. That's according to 44% of the 107 economists and housing experts surveyed by real-estate company Zillow.

Why houses are so expensive? ›

In the most popular areas, there is a shortage of supply. It is difficult to find new land around greater London. Environmental cost. The British have a strong attachment to preserving “greenbelt land” Many areas are protected from further housing development.

Is this a good time to buy a house? ›

Based on data, now is a good time to buy a house — and first-time buyers agree. According to Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, more than 60% of renters would buy a home if their lease ended. Most expect rents to rise sharply in the next 12 months. The housing market may favor Fall home buyers.

Does quantitative tightening raise interest rates? ›

Quantitative tightening picks up speed

In addition to raising short-term interest rates the Fed has picked up the pace of its quantitative tightening program this month.

Does quantitative tightening reduce money supply? ›

The end of quantitative easing

Quantitative tightening (QT), conversely, means reducing the supply of bank reserves. The Fed accomplishes this by letting the bonds it has purchased reach maturity and run off its balance sheet.

Is the Fed going to quantitative tightening? ›

By adding so much liquidity to the financial system, the Fed helped fuel significant gains in the stock, bond, and housing markets, and other investment assets. Now, with inflation rampant, the Fed is unwinding this liquidity via a process known as quantitative tightening, or QT.

Who is the largest single holder of U.S. government securities? ›

The Federal Reserve, which purchases and sells Treasury securities as a means to influence federal interest rates and the nation's money supply, is the largest holder of such debt.

How much gold does the U.S. have? ›

Report as of: February 28, 2021
Department of the Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service Status Report of U.S. Government Gold Reserve February 28, 2021
SummaryFine Troy Ounces
Subtotal - Gold Coins73,829.500
Total - Federal Reserve Bank-Held Gold13,452,810.545
Total - U.S. Government Gold Reserve261,498,926.241
32 more rows
2 Apr 2021

How much gold does U.S. have in reserve? ›

U.S. Reserve Assets (Table 3.12)
Asset2019
1Total129,479
2Gold stock111,041
3Special drawing rights2 350,749
4Reserve position in International Monetary Fund2 526,153
2 more rows

How often does the Fed change interest rates? ›

Although there's no such thing as "federal mortgage rates," the federal funds rate influences interest rates for longer-term loans, including mortgages. The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to tweak monetary policy.

How many times a year does the Federal Reserve meet? ›

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Why is the Fed said to have a dual mandate? ›

At its core, the Federal Reserve has two main jobs: keeping inflation low and making sure maximum number of people are employed in America. This is known as the Fed's "dual mandate."

How does the Fed respond to recessions Brainly? ›

Expert-verified answer

The Fed may respond to a recession by increasing the money supply. The Fed is also known as the "lender of last resort". This is because when a bank has less money, it lends its finances to keep the customers satisfied and prevent chaos. The Fed also pays a sum of money as interest.

Which statement best describes how the federal response to recessions Brainly? ›

Which statement best describes how the Fed responds to recessions? It increases the money supply.

Can the Fed prevent a recession? ›

Fed hopes for 'soft landing' for the US economy, but history suggests it won't be able to prevent a recession.

What should the government do during a recession? ›

Fiscal Policy

When the country is in a recession, the appropriate policy is to increase spending, reduce taxes, or both. Such expansionary actions will put more money in the hands of businesses and consumers, encouraging businesses to expand and consumers to buy more goods and services.

How does increasing the federal funds rate affect the economy? ›

When the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate, it typically increases interest rates throughout the economy, which tends to make the dollar stronger. The higher yields attract investment capital from investors abroad seeking higher returns on bonds and interest-rate products.

How did the 2008 financial crisis affect the world? ›

The housing market was deeply impacted by the crisis. Evictions and foreclosures began within months. The stock market, in response, began to plummet and major businesses worldwide began to fail, losing millions. This, of course, resulted in widespread layoffs and extended periods of unemployment worldwide.

Which three factors led to the Great Recession of 2008? ›

The Great Recession, one of the worst economic declines in US history, officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009. The collapse of the housing market — fueled by low interest rates, easy credit, insufficient regulation, and toxic subprime mortgages — led to the economic crisis.

Why did the 2008 recession happen? ›

The 2008 financial crisis began with cheap credit and lax lending standards that fueled a housing bubble. When the bubble burst, the banks were left holding trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages. The Great Recession that followed cost many their jobs, their savings, and their homes.

How will recession affect me? ›

Whatever you call it, a recession can impact your finances. Economic expansions create opportunities: new businesses, more jobs, and higher wages. Recessions reduce opportunities: failed businesses, fewer jobs, and lower wages.

What happens to interest rates in a recession? ›

During a recession, the Federal Reserve typically lowers interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic activity. This is done in hopes that lower interest rates will encourage businesses to invest and expand, and also encourage consumers to spend. However, there is no guarantee that this will happen.

Is a recession coming in 2022? ›

The U.S. has already experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2022, which some people consider to be a recession. But others are waiting for the National Bureau of Economic Research to make the final call—and it has yet to do so.

Are we in a recession 2022? ›

According to the NBER's definition of recession—a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months—we were not in a recession in the summer of 2022.

Is a recession coming in 2023? ›

Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday the U.S. economy will face a recession starting the second-quarter of 2023, but robust U.S. consumer finances will help cushion its impact.

Do prices go up during a recession? ›

While the prices of individual items may behave unpredictably due to unexpected economic factors, it is true that a recession might cause the prices of some items to fall. Because a recession means people usually have less disposable income, the demand for many items decreases, causing them to get cheaper.

How can inflation be stopped? ›

Contractionary monetary policy is now a more popular method of controlling inflation. The goal of a contractionary policy is to reduce the money supply within an economy by increasing interest rates. 5 This helps slow economic growth by making credit more expensive, which reduces consumer and business spending.

How long does a recession last? ›

Recessions happen when economic output, consumer demand and employment are all negatively affected. Modern recessions typically last 10 months. The Great Recession lasted about 18 months, though its economic effects lasted for years.

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